Developed markets feel the impact of China tremors

When the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold – or so the old saying goes.

But in recent days it has been the sickly Chinese stock market that has been blamed for infecting markets in other parts of the world.

Take yesterday – the Shanghai Composite index fell 4.3 per cent. Other Asian markets dropped sharply and bourses in Europe initially followed suit before recovering later.

David Morrison, market strategist at GFT, says: “We have put so much emphasis on Chinese growth and this bizarre notion that this will pull the rest of the world up with it, that when cracks begin to show traders start to worry.

“The increasing wariness over the accuracy of Chinese data, and concerns that stock and property bubbles have resulted from government stimulus ‘misallocation’, have got us all turning to the Shanghai Composite each morning in a way we would never have done even a month ago.”

Fraser Howie, the Singapore-based author of Privatising China who closely follows the Shanghai markets, adds: “China’s markets have become much more influential and correlated with other markets, not just in Asia but all over the world.

“This is because China is the only big economy in the world that is growing strongly. It is contributing more to world gross domestic product than before, so its markets have become more important to investors.”

This is a change because for many years the performance of Chinese and western equities was not correlated. There were good reasons for this, including the relative isolation of the Chinese market. It is very hard, for example, for western investors to buy Chinese A shares, as opposed to H shares which are traded in Hong Kong and which can be bought by foreigners.

Analysts say there have been a number of occasions in the past two years when falls in Chinese equities have sent tremors through other markets. One was on February 26 2007, when the Chinese market fell almost 9 per cent. But the opposite is also true. Last November Chinese markets began to recover following the announcement of the country’s massive $568bn stimulus programme, which presaged the recovery in western markets.

Since January 2008, the Shanghai Composite has moved in the same direction as the S&P 500 on 16 out of 20 months – a correlation of 80 per cent. Between January 2002 and December 2007, it moved in the same direction in 37 out of 84 months – a correlation of only 45 per cent.

The correlation is even greater between China and other Asian markets, with the Shanghai Composite moving in the same direction as the FTSE Asia Pacific index on 17 out of the past 20 months – an 85 per cent correlation.

But it is not just equities that have been influenced by China’s stock markets.

As Chinese equities have become a barometer for risk appetite, they have increasingly helped move currency and commodity markets. Both commodity and emerging market currencies, such as the South African rand and the Brazilian real, often take their cue from Chinese equities. Steve Barrow, a currencies strategist at Standard Bank, says: “It is our view that a sustained and serious bout of global risk aversion is only likely to come from China, not elsewhere.” However, China is not about to take over from the US as the benchmark market.

In fact, analysts warn that putting too much faith in Chinese equities as a bellwether would be foolish as they are closed to foreign investors, and consequently not such a good indicator of sentiment as open markets. They are also still very small compared with the developed exchanges in the US and Europe. For example, the US markets make up 41 per cent of the market capitalisation of the FTSE All World index. China only makes up 1.48 per cent.

Robert Buckland, equity strategist at Citigroup, says: “China’s economy is very important, but we are less convinced that Chinese stocks matter as much. Recent falls in stocks have been about investors looking for an excuse to take profits rather than really thinking the fall in China will start a sustained downward trend.

“Chinese markets are just not mature or big enough to displace the S&P 500. Maybe they will be in a few decades, but not yet.”

Mr Howie agrees: “It makes no sense for investors to follow the Chinese markets. They are very immature in that they do not have a large pension fund market or a solid base of investors like those in the west.

“They went up more than 90 per cent at one point this year, but that was artificial as money has found its way into stocks because of the huge amount of credit that has been made available by the banks at the behest of the authorities. This is a market driven by liquidity.”

Nigel Rendell, senior emerging market strategist at RBC Capital Markets, says: “China is now in effect in a bear market [a 20 per cent fall from recent peak to trough]. This has happened in just two weeks, so we have to be at least a little concerned.

“But we don’t think the market will necessarily fall a lot further. If you look at valuations, then the market looks fairly priced. Trailing price earnings multiples on the Shanghai Composite rose to 51.99 in October 2007. They are now 29.78. That is encouraging because if China falters, then the world recovery will do too. China’s markets may have not replaced the US just yet, but they are a big factor in determining sentiment.”

Stocks Fall as China Slumps; Commodities Drop, Yen, Bonds Rise

China’s stocks dropped, briefly dragging the benchmark index into a so-called bear market and triggering declines in equities and commodities worldwide. The yen and Treasuries rose as investors sought less risky assets.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations sank 0.3 percent at 12:45 p.m. in London and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.8 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped as much as 5.1 percent, extending its drop from a 2009 high to more than 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market. Copper fell 2.1 percent. The yen strengthened against all 16 of the most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg and the pound weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level since July 14.

The U.S. and Chinese governments pledged more than $13 trillion to combat the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, helping to fuel a nine-month rally in the Shanghai Composite that pushed the index’s price-to-earnings ratio to almost double the valuations for the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Earnings for Chinese companies that reported since July 8 have trailed analysts’ estimates by 12 percent on average, Bloomberg data show.

“The focus of global markets is what’s happening in China,” said Bartosz Pawlowski, a London-based emerging-markets strategist at BNP Paribas SA. “China will have to remove liquidity from the market, and it’s likely that commodities will suffer and it means worse sentiment towards risk in general.”

Declining Loans

The Shanghai Composite lost 4.3 percent today as Maanshan Iron & Steel Co.tumbled 7.5 percent. The company posted a half- year loss for the second consecutive period as the global recession curbed demand from homebuilders and automakers.

The Shanghai gauge stands at less than half its record level in October 2007. Stocks have slumped as new loans in July declined to less than a quarter of June’s level and companies including Yunnan Copper Industry Co. reported losses. The gauge is still 53 percent higher for the full year.

China’s stock market has foreshadowed moves in global equities the past two years. It peaked on Oct. 16, 2007, two weeks before the MSCI All-Country World Index. The Shanghai index fell 72 percent from its 2007 high and bottomed on Nov. 4, 2008, four months before the MSCI index. The Chinese measure reached its 2009 high on Aug. 4, seven trading days before the global index.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares retreated 0.7 percent today. A 43 percent rebound since March 9 has driven the regional measure’s valuation to 40.2 times the profits of its companies, near the most expensive level since 2003, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Alcoa, Hewlett-Packard

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, slid 3.6 percent in pre-market New York trading. Aluminum, copper, lead and nickel dropped in London and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded the company’s shares to “neutral” from “buy.”

Hewlett-Packard Co. slipped 2.4 percent in pre-market New York trading after the company’s fourth-quarter revenue forecast indicated that lower computer prices are eating into sales.

Revenue this quarter will grow about 8 percent from the previous three months, Hewlett-Packard said yesterday, suggesting sales of about $29.6 billion. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey predicted $29.8 billion on average.

Deere & Co., the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, fluctuated between gains and losses after reporting results. The company posted third-quarter profit of 99 cents per share, beating the 56-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, while giving a forecast that implied it will have a near break-even fourth quarter. Analysts projected profit of 35 cents a share for the period.

Emerging Markets

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 0.6 percent. India’s Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index lost 1.5 percent, while Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite index fell 2.5 percent. Hungary’s forint led declines in east European currencies against the euro as the tumble in Chinese shares prompted investors to sell emerging-market assets.

Copper for delivery in three months fell 2.1 percent to $5,950 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Crude oil retreated 0.3 percent to $69 a barrel in New York. China is the world’s second-largest oil user.

Investors are concerned that governments and their central banks will struggle to withdraw stimulus packages that have eased the global economic recession. “Enormous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects,” billionaire Warren Buffett said. Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the dollar will weaken as the U.S. pumps “massive” amounts of money into the economy.

Treasuries, King, Cameron

Treasuries advanced as investors sought the relative safety of U.S. bonds, driving the yield on the 10-year note 7 basis points lower to 3.44 percent. The two-year yield dropped 5 basis points to 0.98 percent.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to buy Treasuries due from February 2020 to February 2026 today, part of its plan to cap consumer borrowing costs, according to its Web site.

The yen strengthened most against the pound after minutes of the Bank of England’s Aug. 6 meeting showed Governor Mervyn King wanted a larger increase in the central bank’s asset- purchase program. The dollar rose versus all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg except the yen.

The cost of hedging against losses on U.K. government debt rose to the highest in a month after David Cameron, the leader of the opposition Conservative Party, said high borrowing levels put the country at risk of default. Credit-default swaps tied to Britain rose 2 basis points to 62, according to CMA DataVision prices. That compares with contracts on Germany at 26.5 basis points and Portugal at 63.5 basis points, CMA prices show.

Mounting Debt

The U.K.’s debt burden is the highest since 1976, when it sought an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund to keep up overseas payments. The Treasury said in April it will borrow 269 billion pounds ($440 billion) more than previously forecast as the recession cuts tax revenue.

Confidence in the world economy surged to a 22-month high in August on signs the first global recession since World War II is approaching an end, a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents showed last week.

The U.S. unemployment rate dropped in July for the first time since April 2008, data from the Labor Department showed this month. The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development said today that the economies of its 30 members collectively stopped shrinking in the second quarter as Japan, France and Germany exited recession.

The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default jumped to the highest in a month, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices for credit-default swaps. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Europe index rose 3.25 basis points to 103.25, and the risk gauge has now climbed 23 percent since Aug. 10.

Shanghai slides on policy fears

A sharp sell-off in Chinese shares in late Wednesday trading saw the benchmark Shanghai Composite close 4.3 per cent lower, putting it in sight of a bear market as speculation grew that the Beijing government would tighten its monetary policy.

The sudden loss of confidence in the Shanghai market after the midday break meant that most Asian indices reversed earlier gains prompted by an overnight US rally. The Chinese market had spearheaded a sharp drop in regional shares on Monday, when the Composite index fell 5.8 per cent.

On Wednesday, the index fell as much as 5.1 per cent at one point, technically falling into a bear market as it was more than 20 per cent lower than this year’s peak on August 4, when it reached 3,471.40. It recovered slightly to close at 2,785.50.

Traders in China said Wang Qishan, vice-premier, had held a meeting with the country’s main regulatory bodies on Tuesday as the government planned to rein in liquidity.

Beijing is thought to be concerned about illegal lending to property developers and banks are tightening control over the approval of mortgages. New lending in July was down sharply to Rmb355.9bn ($52bn) from Rmb1,530bn the previous month, raising fears that liquidity would disappear from the stock market.

Resource-related sectors led the decline in Shanghai, with mining shares down 6.8 per cent and metal companies losing 8 per cent on average. A number of steelmakers and base-metal companies are due to announce earnings later this week.

Late on Tuesday, Maanshan Iron & Steel, one of the largest-listed steel producers in China, had posted a first-half net loss of $795.4m, the second consecutive interim loss on slumping demand. The negative results have exacerbated investors’ fear that current commodity prices are not sustainable, particularly if bank lending continues to slow.

Jiangxi Copper was down 8.4 per cent to Rmb35.27 and Chinalco dropped 7.5 per cent to Rmb14.49.

Bank of Communications, the first of the country’s top banks to report, announced after the market close that first-half net profit rose to Rmb15.6bn from Rmb15.5bn a year earlier.

News that Shanghai stock prices had plunged sent other regional shares down in the afternoon. The Nikkei 255 lost 0.7 per cent in the hour before closing, taking the day’s loss to 0.8 per cent compared with the day before. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong lost 1.7 per cent, mostly in the afternoon, to close below the 20,000 mark.

Australia escaped the sell-off because its market closed before afternoon trading in China began.

China goes house hunting to rev up economy

The Chinese government is attempting to pass the baton of growth from state-funded infrastructure investment to the private housing sector, a risky but necessary move to sustain the economic recovery.

Construction cranes sprouting in big cities, busy furniture shops and soaring property sales all show that the transition is going smoothly so far, though officials are wary that house prices may rise too high, too quickly.

China’s biggest listed property developer, Vanke (000002.SZ), lifted its housing starts target for this year by 45 percent, while its rival Poly Real Estate (600048.SS) said sales in January-July rose 143 percent from a year earlier.

On the ground, construction firms, big and small, are trying to meet the demand, last years’ downturn now a distant memory.

“It’s been a long time since we’ve had a day off. Several months, I think, though I can’t remember exactly,” said Zhang Minghui, owner of a small building company in Beijing.

“From late last year to early this year, we basically had nothing to do. Everybody was careful with their money because of the crisis and so projects got delayed.”

Zhang cut his staff to three in November but is now back up to a crew of 14.

The economic importance of the property sector in China is hard to overstate. Investment in residential housing accounted for about 10 percent of gross domestic product before a property boom turned to bust in 2008, roughly the same as the contribution from the country’s vaunted export factories.

The government’s first steps last year to revive the stalling Chinese economy were to offer tax cuts to encourage home purchases, followed by rules to ease access to mortgages.

These are bearing fruit.

With housing investment up an annual 11.6 percent in the first seven months, Chinese growth momentum is broadening out and the central government has been able to slow the pace of its stimulus spending on infrastructure.

REAL ECONOMY

But Beijing must strike a fine balance in its bid to kick-start the housing market.

On the one hand, it wants rising prices to persuade house hunters to stop putting off purchases and to get developers to invest in new projects. On the other hand, it is wary of prices rising too quickly, luring speculators into the market and turning it into an asset bubble, not an economic driver.

“Because it is closely linked to so many industries, volatility in the real estate market will inevitably lead to macroeconomic volatility,” the government-run China Economic Times warned on Monday.

The housing market rebound in Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other big cities means that prices are already back to their 2007 peak, the report noted.

While prices are high, a surge in sales has depleted housing inventories and developers need to break ground to catch up, Ken Peng, an economist at Citigroup in Beijing, said.

That the Chinese property sector is at a turning point, just getting back on its feet, is seen in the differing fortunes of shops at the Shilihe hardware market in east Beijing.

Those selling goods for early stages of construction, such as tiles, say business is strong. Vendors of lights, among the final purchases for a new home, say it is only now perking up.

“We have done some sales to attract shoppers. But we have actually started scaling these back,” said Chen Yu, a saleswoman at Jushang Lights.

UP OR DOWN?

The government can take heart in how most of the real estate money has been spent to date.

Investment in property construction was up a fifth in western China — the part of the country with the biggest need for new housing — in June compared with a year earlier. Wealthier coastal areas in the east, which are already heavily built up, saw a 4.4 percent rise.

But officials are wary of another boom in housing prices paving the way for yet another bust. A handful of Chinese cities have made mortgage lending terms on second homes stiffer to try to keep speculators at bay.

Several real estate agents said the market seemed to have cooled over the past few weeks.

Shanghai Xinyi, a real estate agency in China’s financial center, said transactions in August fell by half from July.

A salesman surnamed Luo at a Shenzhen branch of Centaline China confirmed that business has slowed down from its brisk pace in the first half.

“It was not rare for house sellers to cancel their original contracts and lift their asking price, even if it meant paying a penalty,” he said by phone. “But the momentum has weakened in August. We could feel the effect of the government’s tightening-up of loans for second homes.”

However, Dong Tao, an economist with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, offered another explanation of the drop in transactions.

Soaring demand gobbled up whatever homes were on the market and so developers simply must build more, he said in a research note. But it takes time to buy land and obtain approvals.

“After many sites have passed the paperwork phase, we expect housing construction to rise significantly over the summer time.”

A PLAN TO SCAN-Google’s Big Plan On Digital Books

A1960 sociological study of female Finnish students or an 1894 handbook on how to play cricket are probably at the top of no one’s poolside reading list this year.

Long out of print, such works are more likely to be gathering dust in attics, languishing forgotten at the backs of people’s bookshelves or, as in the case of these two volumes, mouldering in the Harvard and Wisconsin university libraries respectively. Of the estimated 40m different books held by US libraries, well over half are unlikely ever to find their way back into a publisher’s favour.

That makes an effort by Google, to burrow deep into the leading US research libraries to make digital copies of all the works it can lay its hands on, seem both ambitious and quixotic. The project, begun nearly five years ago, has also started scanning out-of-copyright works from libraries in other countries. A digital archive of all extant books – even ones in which few people are these days likely to show much interest – is carrying the internet company’s mission to “organise the world’s information” to the extreme.

Yet this mountain of fading literary oddments is now at the centre of a fierce debate in the book world that is about to come to a head.

After facing copyright lawsuits in the US over the digitisation project, Google reached a settlement last year that seemed to have something for just about everyone: publishers and authors, because it gives them a chance to make money from longforgotten works; public and university libraries, as it provides them with a way to leap beyond their dead-tree stacks into the digital age; and readers, to whom it brings access to millions of works that would otherwise have remained out of reach.

But this agreement with the US book industry, which awaits court approval, has stirred up the sort of passions that always attach to books, those most cultural of manufactured objects. In particular, the deal has provoked the fear that a more centralised industry will arise as publishing turns digital, upending checks and balances put in place over decades.

“The book world has done really well out of decentralisation – anyone who has ideas, or access to a printing press, can take part,” says James Grimmelmann, associate professor at New York Law School, a leading critic of the settlement. Giving Google too much power over old, out-of-print works, he adds, could set the stage for its dominance of the broader digital book market: “Control over the past will translate into control over the future of books.”

The US Department of Justice has taken such concerns seriously enough to launch an investigation into the competitive implications of the settlement: it is due to submit its views to the court considering the case in the middle of next month. Before that, the European Commission has called its own hearing on the issue, to consider the impact on Europe’s book industry and authors’ rights.

The main focus of the settlement falls on out-of-print books that are still in copyright. These works probably account for 60 per cent or so of all books in the US, making them a massive – if heavily underused – intellectual resource. While Google’s initial go-it-alone approach to digitising these works brought angst and lawsuits, the accord has turned it into an ally of the American book world. Unless copyright owners opt out of the plan, a Book Rights Registry to be run by representatives of the publishers and authors will have the power to license digital rights for all out-of-print books in the US to Google.

Google will then make parts of these works available through its search service, sell subscriptions to the entire database to university libraries and others – every library in the US will be offered a single free terminal to tap into the treasure trove – and sell access to full versions of individual works hosted on its computers. It will keep 37 per cent of the money from these sales, passing the rest to the registry to be paid out to copyright holders.

he undertaking is set to cost “hundreds of millions of dollars”, says Dan Clancy, head of the Google Books effort. Yet there is little business in old books: second-hand volumes are estimated to account for less than $1bn of the $25bn US books market. The scale of the ambition makes it the sort of thing that only a Google would contemplate – or be able to afford.

David Balto, a former justice department lawyer, argues that any antitrust concerns are dwarfed by the benefits the settlement will bring. “What Google is doing is incredible – from a competition policy perspective, you don’t want to punish people who are risking millions of dollars doing things like this that haven’t been done before,” he says.

Even the settlement’s critics admit that it will bring immediate and substantial benefits, making millions of books widely available in the US for the first time. Yet its potential long-term impact on the shape of the digital book market has guaranteed that the settlement will attract close regulatory scrutiny, whatever its immediate attractions.

Critics fear that two aspects in particular could hand Google too much power, while also leaving a coterie of publishers and authors with disproportionate sway over setting prices for digital works, to the detriment of readers.

The first concerns the exclusive right that Google would have to distribute digital books whose copyright holders cannot be traced. These so-called “orphan works” may make up a large portion of all out-of-print tomes: Paul Courant, head of the University of Michigan library, estimates that they amount to 1m-2.5m of his collection of 8m volumes.

Congress has failed in its own efforts to free up these works so they can be sold without the risk of claims later from the copyright owners. It is a peculiarity of class action law in the US, though, that private legal action can achieve a result that has eluded Congress: since Google and the new books registry would be free to sell works whose owners did not actively opt out of the court-approved settlement, they would assume a right not available to anyone else.

But even if Google is left as sole distributor of orphan works, do the benefits outweigh antitrust worries? “Google is certainly going to be in a position of power in out-of-print books – but out-of-print books aren’t exactly hot commercial properties,” says Mr Courant. Balanced against that are the benefits to readers: “Being able to use these orphan works is much, much better than nothing.”

Opponents say this understates the potential value to Google in the long run. Having the world’s most comprehensive collection could make it the default first choice for book buyers, overshadowing Amazon.com’s claim to be the world’s biggest bookstore. “You’re much more likely to turn to Google first because they’ll have many more titles,” says the law school’s Mr Grimmelmann.

The international dimension to the debate over orphan works has also started to resonate, particularly in France, where a lawsuit against Google brought by local publishers is due to be heard next month.

Under the Berne convention, a long-standing international copyright agreement, copyright owners do not have to register in every country in order to protect their rights. The opt-out provision of the US settlement appears to fly in the face of that agreement by pre-empting the rights of anyone who does not come forward.

The publicity surrounding the case, and the creation of a single registry to administer rights, should encourage more rights holders outside the US to come forward, says Mr Clancy at Google. But with some European publishers already suspicious of having their rights circumscribed by American litigation, a visceral opposition has been building – particularly since the benefits from the settlement will accrue only to people in the US.

A second controversy surrounds the intended Book Rights Registry. Similar agencies representing the collective interests of artists are familiar in other parts of the media industry, for instance, the music world. But these typically are the creation of a legislative process or operate under close antitrust scrutiny. The settlement tries to combine two conflicting objectives – to maximise the revenues to authors and publishers while ensuring the widest possible access to the out-of-print works. Whether the complex system of incentives it creates can have the desired effect is a source of considerable unease.

“The library subscription could be excessively expensive,” says Mr Courant in Michigan, reflecting a widely held concern. Gary Reback, a Silicon Valley antitrust lawyer, adds that the registry may have an incentive to license its book rights only to Google in order to keep prices up, rather than encourage competing distributors.

Countering this, Mr Clancy contends that Google’s business model is based on obtaining the widest possible distribution: “Google’s interest is to make it cheap.” Even if libraries do not buy a subscription, he adds, the terminal they will receive for visitors to access Google’s digital files will leave them better off than now.

W ith scrutiny intensifying on both sides of the Atlantic, a moment of truth is at hand for Google and its new allies (including Pearson Education and Penguin, sister companies of the Financial Times). They can push ahead with their settlement and risk provoking a backlash. Or they can try to adjust the terms to defuse some of the criticisms.

Those changes could be relatively easy to make, say opponents. Representatives of wider interests, such as libraries and readers, could be included on the book registry to prevent it limiting distribution only to Google or seeking excessive prices, says Peter Brantley, director of the Internet Archive, a non-profit organisation that is working on a digital archive of its own.

The court that is due to approve the class action settlement could also find ways to extend the “orphan works” protections to distributors other than Google, says Randal Picker, a law professor at the University of Chicago – though legal opinions are divided on whether this is possible. Google itself says it supports the idea of legislation to resolve the problem.

With the Department of Justice set to issue its verdict in less than a month, its behind-the-scenes discussions with many of the interested parties have been intensifying, according to people involved. There is so far no public indication that any voluntary changes to the complex book settlement will be forthcoming. But it seems increasingly likely that adjustments will be needed if the millions of tracts, treatises, thrillers and tragedies already embedded in Google’s vast memory bank are once more to see the full light of day.

The market in prospect

Now for a new – or very old – type of browser war . . .

Behind Google’s efforts to win friends and mollify critics in the book world lies a simple message: its vision for digital books is at least more appealing than that advanced by Amazon.com.

Though digital editions of books are still only a tiny part of the overall market, Amazon has created a model for how this business might work. Its Kindle reader and linked digital store, with books sold only in its proprietary format, echo the iPod/iTunes model with which Apple conquered digital music. Amazon’s pricing power and tight control are starting to stir up the same concerns among publishers and booksellers that Apple aroused in the music industry.

Dan Clancy, the former rocket scientist who is in charge of Google’s books project, cannot be drawn into mentioning the rival’s name but says: “If there’s a single player you should be concerned about in the digital books market, it’s not Google.” In Google’s vision, books dematerialise and move into the “cloud” – they sit as digital files in its data centres and can be accessed on any internet-connected device, not tied to a single gadget like the Kindle.

The company’s bet, says Mr Clancy, is that just as consumers have shown they want to download music and manage it on their home computers, they would rather browse a giant bookshelf in the sky when they are looking for something to read – and would rather have a choice of device on which to read it.

The works it is copying from universities create a foundation for this virtual bookshelf. They cannot be downloaded but there will be limited powers to copy and paste sections of works. Through deals with publishers, Google hopes to extend this approach to encompass new books, which have far greater commercial potential.

In another attempt to set itself apart from Amazon, Google is also seeking to position itself as an ally of traditional booksellers – though given the fear and uncertainty stirred up by the move towards digital books, this is proving a tough sell. In the future, while the “cloud books” reside on Google’s servers, other retailers will be able to sell access to them. Eventually, says Mr Clancy, those digital rights could be sold through brick-and-mortar booksellers.

“Our core business is not selling books,” he says. “Our core business is search and display. We will work well with people whose core business is selling books.”

CHINA-AUSTRALIA $41BN DEAL

China’s largest energy company agreed yesterday to buy $41bn worth of natural gas from Australia at a signing ceremony that was intended to put a positive gloss on strained relations between the trading partners.

Martin Ferguson, Australia’s energy and resources minister, was in Beijing to witness the signing of PetroChina’s agreement to buy 2.25m metric tonnes a year of liquid natural gas from ExxonMobil’s Gorgon project off the coast of the state of Western Australia.

At current gas prices, the deal will be worth $41bn over the next 20 years and is Australia’s largest-ever trade deal, Mr Ferguson said. But the key conditions of the deal were agreed months ago and the timing of the announcement was clearly intended to soothe strained ties between Australia and its most important trading partner.

Canberra revealed yesterday that China cancelled a high-level diplomatic visit to Australia earlier this month in protest over the granting of a visa to Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer, who is blamed by Beijing for instigating ethnic riots in Xinjiang province last month.

Sino-Australian relations have also been damaged by the collapse of a high-profile Chinese investment in Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto and China’s arrest of four Rio Tinto iron ore sales executives, including Australian citizen Stern Hu, on alleged bribery and commercial espionage charges.

Mr Ferguson’s visit to Beijing and the ceremonial announcement of the PetroChina deal were timed to defuse rising tensions between the two countries, say people familiar with the deal.

Sino-Australian trade is worth about $53bn a year. “This agreement is testimony to the strength of Australia’s continuing trade and investment relationship with China,” Mr Ferguson said in a statement. “As China continues to develop as a modern global industrial and commercial powerhouse, Australia is committed to walking with it on its remarkable journey.”

The Gorgon project is one of the world’s largest proposed gas developments. As well as the agreement with ExxonMobil, which owns 25 per cent of Gorgon, PetroChina has a long standing agreement with Royal Dutch Shell, which also owns 25 per cent, to source gas from the field.

Chevron, the US oil group that is 50 per cent owner and operator of Gorgon, is yet to sign off officially on the project, however, a “final investment decision”, the last remaining milestone, is thought to be only weeks away.

In 2007, PetroChina signed what was then hailed as Australia’s biggest export deal when it reached an outline agreement with Woodside Petroleum to buy an estimated $37bn worth of liquefied natural gas from the Browse basin. Australia has more than 10 LNG projects under development by some of the world’s top energy groups.

AMERICA SHOULD NOT TAKE CHINA TOO SERIOUSLY

By David Pilling 2009-07-31

What a difference an “and” makes. The US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED), a twice-yearly bilateral encounter centred on economic issues, has morphed under President Barack Obama into the broader Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED). For those with a grammatical bent, the addition of a conjunction transforms the word “strategic” from an adjective describing the economic dialogue into a portmanteau adjective describing anything Hillary Clinton damn well wants.

The upshot of US inter-agency rivalry is that Mrs Clinton’s state department joins Tim Geithner’s Treasury at the heart of the conversation with Beijing. That is no bad thing. It has broadened the agenda from what Hank Paulson, Mr Geithner’s predecessor, originally conceived in 2006 as a narrowly economic forum. Now that the state department has muscled in, climate change, North Korea and any other issue of global or bilateral import have joined US deficits, financial sector reform and the renminbi as potential subjects for discussion.

Widening the agenda of talks, the latest round of which wrapped up in Washington on Tuesday, makes sense. The Sino-US relationship is evolving fast. Mr Obama’s China policy builds on foundations laid by his predecessor. For a president who promised change, one area of constancy with George W. Bush’s White House has been the posture towards Beijing. That was one of the few things his predecessor was judged to have got about right. Unlike Mr Bush, or Bill Clinton before him, President Obama has not had to backpedal from initial hostility towards China towards a more accommodating stance.

In part this is because of his conviction that it is good to reach out. If he can talk to Tehran or Pyongyang, he can certainly entertain friendly dialogue with Beijing. It is also because he had little choice. The economic crisis has tilted the balance of power towards China. The US is feeling less confident about its economic underpinnings and less able than before to lecture Beijing on revaluation or the delights of liberalisation, particularly since so many of its own banks, insurers

and carmakers have fallen under state control.

If anything, it is Beijing – some of whose officials now privately boast they have nothing at all to learn from the Great Spendthrift – that has the upper hand. China’s seeming financial hold over the US has been brought into sharp relief. Beijing has become prone to lecture Washington on the need to safeguard its $2,000bn reserves, the bulk of which are parked in US dollars.

It is wholly appropriate that Washington accords due attention to China, the most important emerging power since America itself. But there is also a danger of taking China too seriously. In compensating for past neglect, things could swing too far the other way. For all the euphoria about the G2 – the Sino-US axis that, according to some breathless reckoning, is the only meaningful global forum – it is worth pausing to survey the facts.

For a start, China’s financial grip over the US is not as tight as many suggest. Far from a sign of strength, Beijing’s accumulation of vast foreign reserves is the s

surplus is the product of an undervalued renminbi that has allowed others to consume Chinese goods at the expense of Chinese people themselves.

Beijing cannot dream of selling down its Treasury holdings without triggering the very dollar collapse it purports to dread. Nor are its shrill calls for the US to close its twin deficits – which would inevitably involve buying fewer Chinese goods – entirely convincing. Rather than exposing the superiority of China’s state-led model, the global financial crisis has laid bare the compromising embrace in which the US and China find themselves.

Commentators also sometimes confuse China’s rapid progress and likely emergence as a superpower with present-day reality. China is still a relatively poor country. For all its military ambitions, it is decades away from being a match for the US. In 2005, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China accounted for just 4 per cent of global military spending, a tad short of the UK and France, and an aircraft-carrier-length away from the US, at 46 per cent. True, US might has been humbled in Iraq and Afghanistan. But China has not even tried to project its power on nations such as North Korea, which has tiptoed towards nuclear status under its very nose.

China is more fragile than its increasingly strident tone suggests. Its economy has been kept churning by enforced bank lending that could yet rebound in asset price bubbles or a crop of bad loans. Communist party control is strong but brittle. Given the choice between projecting China’s authority on the world stage at this month’s G8 summit in Italy or tackling brewing ethnic conflict in Xinjiang, Hu Jintao, China’s president, chose to rush home.

ide-effect of an economic model too reliant on exports. The enormous trade

I’ve been an optimist on China. But I‘m starting to worry

By Stephen Roach

On the surface, China appears to be leading the world from recession to recovery. After coming to a virtual standstill in late 2008, at least as measured quarter-to-quarter, economic growth accelerated sharply in spring 2009.

A back-of-the envelope calculation suggests China may have accounted for as much as 2 percentage points of annualised growth in inflation-adjusted world output in the second quarter of 2009. With contractions moderating elsewhere, China’s rebound may have been enough in and of itself to allow global gross domestic product to eke out a small positive gain for the first time since last summer.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that China’s recent growth spurt comes at a steep price. Fearful that its recent economic short- fall would deepen, Chinese policymakers have opted for quantity over quality in setting macro-strategy, the centrepiece of which is an enormous surge in infrastructure spending funded by a burst of bank lending.

Sure, developing nations always need more infrastructure. But China has taken this to extremes. Infrastructure expenditure (including Sichuan earthquake reconstruction) accounts for fully 72 per cent of China’s recently enacted Rmb4,000bn ($585bn) stimulus. The government urged the banks to step up and fund the package. And they did. In the first six months of 2009, bank loans totalled Rmb7,400bn – three times the pace in the first half of 2008 and the strongest six-month lending surge on record.

This outsized bank-directed investment stimulus leaves little doubt as to how bad it was in China in late 2008 and early 2009. An unprecedented external demand shock, stemming from rare synchronous recessions in the developed world, devastated the export-led Chinese growth machine. That triggered sackings of more than 20m migrant workers in export-intensive Guangdong province. Long fixated on social stability, Beijing moved to arrest this deterioration. The government was determined to do whatever it took to restore rapid growth.

Yet there can be no avoiding the destabilising consequences of these actions. Surging investment accounted for an unprecedented 88 per cent of Chinese GDP growth in the first half of 2009 – double the average contribution of 43 per cent over the past decade. At the same time, the quality of Chinese bank lending most assuredly suffered from the rash of credit disbursements in the first half of this year – a trend that could sow the seeds for a new wave of non-performing bank loans. Just this week, Chinese regulators told banks that new loans must be used to bolster the real economy and not for speculation in equities and real estate.

A little over two years ago, premier Wen Jiabao warned of a Chinese economy that was becoming increasingly “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and ultimately unsustainable”. Prescient words. Yet rather than act on those concerns by implementing a pro-consumption rebalancing, growth-hungry China was seduced by the boom in global trade and upped the ante on its most unbalanced sectors. By 2007, investment and exports accounted for about 80 per cent of Chinese GDP. And now, in the face of a severe global recession, China has compounded the very problems the premier warned of: aiming a massive liquidity-driven stimulus at its most unbalanced sector.

This is not a sustainable outcome for any economy – or sustainable support for the world economy. China must redirect economic growth towards internal private consumption. This may require a compromise on the quantity dimension of its growth outcome. But to the extent that leads to improved quality in the Chinese economy, a short-term growth sacrifice is well worth the effort.

Unlike most, I have been a steadfast optimist on China. Yet I am starting to worry. A macro strategy that exacerbates worrying imbalances is ultimately a recipe for failure. In many respects, that’s what the global crisis and recession of 2008-09 are all about. China will not get special dispensation from the most critical lesson of this post-crisis era.

The writer is chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of ‘The Next Asia’ (Wiley), due out in September

Andy Xie:The next revolution

Another information revolution is unfolding. Possibly in two to three years how we access and use information will change fundamentally, which would affect the IT industry dramatically as well as the broad economy. PC still dominates information storage and processing at present. The new world is likely to shift data processing and storage to the net. New mobile technologies will allow users to remain online anytime and anywhere. All knowledge will become available instantaneously. There will be no distinctions in processing voice, video or text data. The advances in mobile phone technology are making this always-on world possible.

The speculation about arrival of this new world has been around for a long time. It is one of the competing visions on the future. In my recent visit to Taiwan I visited several major IT companies and realized how soon this world was coming and how it was impacting Taiwan’s IT businesses. One of the major implications is that PC will lose its importance in the IT world. It has far reaching consequences for East Asian economies that have invested heavily in PC related manufacturing activities.

Taiwan’s economy has benefited heavily from three factors in the past two decades: (1) China’s opening made cheap labor available to its manufacturers, (2) outsourcing trend due to the rise of big-box retailers in the US created a big market for its manufacturers, and (3) the rapid growth of the PC industry gave its tech companies room to grow fast. Taiwan’s strength in taking advantage of the three was its factory management expertise and its extensive connections in China and the US. In particular, Taiwan has assumed an important role in the PC supply chain. From components, assembly and even branding Taiwan’s PC industry has risen to global prominence. It is now a sun-setting industry.

In the new paradigm the most important function for a consumer device is connectivity and interactivity. It makes PC just one of the numerous existing and future devices. PC has two distinct disadvantages in competing against other products. First, Microsoft and Intel charge high prices for their proprietary products essential to a PC. The so-called WinTel standard served to increase competition in downstream industries. It led to declining PC prices and rising sales. However, WinTel’s monopoly charges limit how far PC prices. Also, as a PC was designed to be a self-containing device, it is loaded with expensive functions that are not valuable in a web-based world. In summary, a PC is no longer the best value for money in a web-based world.

The PC industry is already suffering from the market evolution. The DRAM industry is experiencing terrible hemorrhaging. When DRAM demand was strong, so many DRAM factories were set up, especially in East Asia. It appears that most won’t survive. One industry veteran in Taiwan told me that only three would survive. The notebook industry that has seen rapid growth in the past decade seems destined for stagnation or even declining. In a stagnant industry profit margin shrinks to the thinnest possible level.

Taiwan is suffering a terrible recession now. Its GDP shrank by over 10% in the first quarter from one year ago. The trade collapse due to the global economic collapse is the main reason. The structural changes like in the PC industry would hold Taiwan’s economy back even when the global economy recovers. In addition, the OEM trend has saturated. It will pressure profit margins on most Taiwanese factories in Mainland China. As far as I can tell, only a few Taiwanese businesses in the smartphone industry are prospering. Even there, lack of key intellectual properties relating to 3G and 4G standards could limit their prospects.

Taiwan’s economy is likely to stagnate for a long time to come. The structural problems will hold back its exports. The profitability of its export factories in the mainland will shrink. Even though some Taiwanese businesses are succeeding in China’s domestic demand, they are too small to lift Taiwan’s economy alone. Taiwan’s household wealth level is still high, which could support its consumption for the foreseeable future. But this is a stagnation story. Taiwan hasn’t really grown much in the past decade. Its living standard is stuck around $15 thousand per capita. It seems that Taiwan’s living standard will remain so for the next decade.

The same forces will also limit China’s rebound in exports. Most Taiwanese factories are in the Mainland. In addition, numerous local businesses are either suppliers to Taiwanese businesses or competing against them for export markets. Half of China’s exports are IT related products. As China is a factory for the world, what’s at stake is the relative value of hardware vs. software or service. It seems that the importance of hardware in the new world is declining. Many products that are still considered hi-tech are commoditized and losing growth. I am deeply concerned that China’s policies are still geared towards promoting such industries. Some local governments are throwing billions of dollars at attracting such commodity industries. The money may be bringing in sunset industries with few benefits for economic development.

Network contractors like China’s Huawai and ZTE are winners in this revolution. Mobile connectivity is the most important factor in contributing to the rise of this new world. The demand for networking equipment will be strong in the next few years. Network operators need to spend heavily to upgrade their networks to compete for consumers.

Even software companies may not win in this world. As the connectivity is anytime, anywhere and network is the computer, consumers can rent software on the net for temporary use and won’t have to buy it for installation on a personal or company computer. This will increase the competition among software producers as it decreases their market power from the lock-in effect. When software is no longer a fixed cost, users have more incentive to switch. Software production has a high profit margin so far precisely for this reason. In the emerging new world software producers may see their profit margins declining to the average among all industries.

Microsoft and Oracle, for example, command massive market capitalization in stock market. But they are hardly the most innovative or best quality companies. Their consumers usually complain about their products. Still they have been earning high profit margins. The reason is that their consumers have sunk huge fixed costs into their products and have low incentives to switch. The new world puts their business model into doubt. I suspect that their market capitalization will decline dramatically over the next five years.

In theory the biggest winners are the network providers like mobile phone operators. They have the best chance to control users. But, they will also have a hard time. The differences among voice, video and text services will vanish. Service providers maximize their profit margins through price discrimination against high value customers. For example, even though Chinese mobile phone operators have vast numbers of customers, a relatively small number of customers, mainly those that use their services for business purpose, contribute to most of their profits. The merging of voice, video and text will make such discrimination impossible. The service providers can only collect a simple rental fee from their customers.

The content providers should be big winners in the net world with a bigger market and less marketing cost. But they are already losing big and could lose more in the always-on world. The problem is that the existing content providers don’t know have to sell their products. Technology companies like Google have taken advantage of that and collect advertizing dollars by locating the content for its users through their search service. In the end, as content providers are starved of money, they will exit the business. The destruction of the content providers is already unfolding. Newspaper companies are struggling around the world. The always-on world will accelerate the process. Newspaper production will probably vanish in its current form.

Magazines and books could also vanish in their paper forms in the foreseeable future. Electronic paper technologies are sufficiently developed that electronic paper works as well as printed paper. They can’t change to electronic publishing easily. Books and magazines exist because the fixed cost for printing is high. They generate economies of scale in disseminating information. In the electronic paper information can be transmitted at zero cost. The justification for information aggregation with large fixed costs isn’t there. In the future people won’t get their information from fixed cost operators like newspapers, magazines and book publishers.

Of course, the above story implies that the demand for paper will collapse in the future. Paper and pulp production requires massive fixed costs. The existing capacity is probably more than enough for the foreseeable future. It would be hard to justify any new investment in this business.

One big positive of the always-on world is that it makes all the knowledge in the world available to everyone anytime. Not everyone will know how to use this advantage. Enough people will. The world will change for that. For example, education can be carried out outside of schools. Education is the biggest government monopoly allover the world. It works due to the economies of scale from the government imposing uniform standards that offset the inherent inefficiency from government control.

Healthcare is another big business to be affected by the revolution. Healthcare accounts for over one tenth of GDP. Its impact is hard to quantify. Its size and the difficulties in quantifying its effectiveness reflect information asymmetry between doctors and patients. Developed countries protect patients by giving them legal rights for ex-post legal actions against healthcare providers. That in turn causes the healthcare providers to overkill in treatment to avoid bad legal consequences. The always-on world will dramatically decrease the information asymmetry between patients and doctors. This allows people to obtain information instantaneously to verify healthcare professionals’ opinions and prescriptions. It improves the market efficiency in two ways. Patients have less need to sue doctors ex post. It decreases healthcare insurance cost and the amount of care.

Hence, it reduces the need for doctors to overprescribe medicine or procedures

This flattening of the knowledge world has profound implications for how societies will be organized and governed. Human societies are governed by elite who control information and are capable of processing it. Inflation collection, processing, and dissemination are always costly. The existence of elite reflects the need for economies of scale in handling information, which gives advantages and privileges to those who happen to handle information. This advantage often turns hereditary and leads to the formation of a permanent ruling class. The declining cost of obtaining information has already led to dramatic social changes in the past century. The final collapse of information cost to zero will accelerate the trend.

How the information revolution is destroying businesses is a classic example of Schumpeterian creative destruction. The new technology renders a significant share of the economy obsolete. Even though the technology improves efficiency overall, the unemployment that results from business destruction could keep the economy weak for an extended period of time. However, it would be wrong for governments to stop the technology. Overtime market will find alternative uses for the unemployed workers. For owners of the obsolete businesses this is an unmitigated disaster. Their capital stock would have only scrap value.

As old businesses are destroyed, new ones will emerge. The internet isn’t just a tool. It has become a world of its own. When human beings have enough food and shelter, all other activities are entertainment or earning money for buying entertainment. The cheapest entertainment is for people to amuse each other. This may be happening. YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, etc., are mainly platforms for people to entertain each other. One can work hard to earn enough money for buying a Mercedes car. Driving it would give one certain satisfaction. Or one could spend time on the net getting entertained for free. Hence, there is no need to work hard anymore. I suspect that in the always-on world internet will decrease rather than increase productivity in traditional sense. But, people may get more satisfaction out of it.

Ethics Return & Trust Revisited

According to finance ministers from the Group of Eight club of rich countries,Flawed markets and fundamental weaknesses in the world economic system demand adoption of a “global standard” of norms and principles and a return to ethics in business.

In a 66-page report expected to be endorsed by heads of government at next week’s G8 summit in Italy, ministers agree “a rethinking of the framework of the global economic and financial system is critical”.

“A set of common principles and standards governing international economic and financial activity is an essential foundation for stable global growth,” the report says, laying out the proposed Lecce framework, named after the baroque Italian city where the ministers met this month.

In the meantime,an article from the editor Adi Ignatius of Harvard Business Review named Trust Revisited in June,2009 is a must and in-time reminder.In the article ,the editor said:THE PUBLIC’S trust in business leaders hasnever been weaker. According to the Edelman Trust Barometer,  in January,trust in U.S. business dropped from 58% to 38% in one year. European businesses are in nearly as much trouble with the public.Businesses in emerging markets are faring better– but not by a lot.

So let us rethink what is wrong with our economic system,is that market wrong,or something else unusable.In my opinion,there is no problem with our market,the trouble we need to face is about our system:the ethics and trust in our business pursuit.We are so greedy that forget what we are pursuing.We need rebuild ethics and trust in business and our system.

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